Water wars

There are those in Iran who must abandon their homes due to lack of water; they are known commonly as “water refugees.” In Gaza, less than 15 gallons of water a day are available to each Palestinian (opposed to each American who has 800 gallons of water available a day). If you think things couldn’t get worse in the Middle East, look to the foreseeable future, when usable water will be far more precious than oil.

By Susan Williams

Since the beginning of time, human settlements have flourished around water. As populations grew and new cultures developed, conflict over access rights often resulted in warfare, a virtual fight for life. But the situation may not be all that different today.

Since the beginning of time, human settlements have flourished around water. As populations grew and new cultures developed, conflict over access rights often resulted in warfare, a virtual fight for life. But the situation may not be all that different today.

While water supply issues in the United States present serious problems and challenges, they don’t begin to compare to those faced by many nations. In much of the world, usable water is far more precious than oil, and political scientists and economists worry that major conflicts will erupt as populations continue to grow and supplies of usable water continue to shrink.

“Today, one in five people are living in countries with inadequate fresh water supplies,” said Asghar Sabbaghi, associate dean and professor of decision sciences at IU South Bend. “In 25 years, this ratio is estimated to become one in three. By that time, between 46 and 52 countries will become either water stressed or water scarce.”

He firmly believes that a switch from government-controlled water service agencies to a graded, free enterprise system of water supply is the key to meeting critically growing needs.

According to Sabbaghi, nearly 97 percent of the world’s water is unusable salt water, and of the remaining 3 percent fresh water, about 87 percent is locked in icecaps, glaciers, the atmosphere, soil and deep aquifers. So, he pointed out, only about 13 percent of the remaining 3 percent, a mere 0.4 percent is usable.

“This is a minuscule amount in contrast to the ever expanding population of the world,” said Sabbaghi.

As their water source, Egypt, the Sudan and Ethiopia depend upon the Nile River, which now is but a trickle as it empties into the Mediterranean Sea. By 2025, the combined populations of the three will have grown from 96.1 million in 1980 to an estimated figure of 167 million in 2000 to a projected 264 million, Sabbaghi said. With the population climbing, all three countries are facing growing grain deficits due to water shortage.

In Gaza, Sabbaghi continued, less than 15 gallons of water a day are available to each Palestinian. Just as a point of reference, there are 800 gallons a day available for each American. In Yemen, a country of 19 million, the water table is falling by roughly two meters a year and test wells drilled 1.2 miles deep have failed to find water. And water-stressed Iranians are becoming “water refugees” as wells go dry.

Scores of other countries, said Sabbaghi, are running up regional water deficits, including nearly all of those in Central Asia, North Africa and the Middle East, plus India, Pakistan, Mexico—and the United States. Potentially, the situation in the Middle East is the most volatile.

“For more than 30 years, Turkey has been building its giant Southeast Anatolia Project, which will eventually include 19 hydroelectric power stations and 22 dams built across both the Tigris and Euphrates rivers,” said Sabbaghi, who also noted that Turkey is one of the few countries in the region with water in reserve. “Financially, the Turks had to go it alone because the World Bank, normally keen to support such major infrastructure projects, made the highly unusual decision to refuse Turkey assistance on the grounds that the project would harm the interests of Turkey’s downstream neighbors, Syria and Iraq, and therefore destabilize the region.

“Syria is overwhelmingly reliant on the waters of the Euphrates, the only major river to flow through Syrian territory, while Iraq, through which both the Tigris and Euphrates flow, is the furthest country downstream and therefore suffers from the removal of water by both Syria and Turkey,” continued Sabbaghi.

“The largely arid Middle East is commonly regarded as the most likely location for the first major water confrontation.”

Clearly, the water supply crisis calls for change. In many countries, government organizations control the development, operation and subsidization of water supply projects, said Sabbaghi, but objectives such as economic efficiency, fairness, equity, revenue, sufficiency, net revenue stability, and simplicity and understandability—objectives encouraged by free enterprise—are the “engines that will drive the train of progress.”

He envisions that the engineer-based approach in water management, which emphasizes the supply side of the industry, must be replaced with a privatized market framework that focuses on the demand side.

“There has not been sufficient attention placed on the demand side and on economic management of this precious resource,” said Sabbaghi. “In particular, water has been viewed as a single commodity and of the same purity whether it is being used to drink or cool our manufacturing plants, to keep our whites whiter and our colors brighter, or our lawns lush and green and our cars shiny. We need to arrive at a system that is able to differentiate water qualities and price them according to their uses.”

Some countries in western Europe have already moved toward a privatization model. In England, the Water Privatization Act in 1989 created a system in which private companies answer to a governing body that wields an industry-wide “yardstick” by monitoring efficiency, competitive prices and consumer protection.

“This benchmark was meant to stimulate competition,” Sabbaghi said. “Failure to maintain comparable efficiency to the rest of the industry would have definite adverse consequences.”

In France, privatization took a difference approach. There, water assets are publicly owned, but private companies act as contractors, hired to manage the asset and bear the risks. The length of the contracts depend on the amount of capital invested into the infrastructure by each company, said Sabbaghi, so more money equals a longer contract, which helps maintain quality.

“Compared to water companies in the United Kingdom, French water plants generally remain in the hands of the public, whereas British companies are local monopolies.”

“Nations facing water crises have come up with many solutions, none of them ideal,” said Sabbaghi. “China, whose urban and industrial belt in the north is desperate for water, is undertaking an enormous project to move water from the Yangtze River Basin in the rainy south to the parched northern areas. Keeping the water free of pollution will be a major problem, and the costs will be gigantic.

“Meanwhile, Argentina turned to private companies to overhaul and manage some of its water systems, only to encounter cost and technical problems.

“Privatization can work, but clearly it must be done carefully and with strict public oversight.”